SIS recently updated its Total Points calculation methodology. You can find a complete explanation of what Total Points is and how it works here.

The top group of quarterbacks taken in the NFL Draft doesn’t always give us a 100% hit rate. But Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love have each been given championship-caliber-quarterback money over the last year, solidifying the 2020 group as one of the better classes of recent vintage.

That said, this collection of first rounders haven’t necessarily hit the ceiling that you’d want from a rookie contract. Only Burrow made the conference championship on his rookie contract—with two injury-shortened seasons surrounding those two campaigns. But a lot of fanbases would be happy to have any of these guys, even if the price tag seems shocking on its face.

With all of their contracts quite similar at this point, which would you take heading into 2024? 

Total Points has a pretty strong opinion on the subject with the recent enhancements to the passing game calculation. If we take the last few years and weigh the seasons 3/2/1 to lean on recent production, Justin Herbert easily leads. Jordan Love enters the conversation based on his 2023 season, but he didn’t have a starting opportunity before that and we can only be so confident in his partial season of excellence.

2020 NFL Draft First Round Quarterback Total Points

Three-year recency-weighted average and 2023 results (including playoffs)

Given that the Chargers haven’t been a very good team with Herbert at the helm, he could be pegged as one of those guys who hasn’t put it together despite his arm talent and athleticism. But his on-field productivity as measured by Total Points outpaces each of his draft class peers in both volume and output, and he’s done so consistently over the last few years.

What makes Herbert stand out

Even with all the loud tools that he can wow scouts with, Herbert’s 2023 was most notable for accuracy. He finished third in Expected On-Target Rate +/-, our measure of accuracy relative to an expectation based on throw depth, route, and some other elements. 

Total Points accounts for accuracy by combining the expected on-target rate from above with an expected value of the throw with and without pinpoint accuracy. Those couple percentage points of accuracy per throw that Herbert offered added up to a roughly 10-point advantage over the other three in 2023. He wasn’t quite so excellent in previous years, but still above average.

Burrow deserves kudos here, because over the last three years he has the best accuracy numbers in the league. Even with a little bit of missed time, his accuracy has been worth 15 to 20 points per season compared to the average quarterback. His issue has been a combination of availability and a tendency to get himself into trouble with sacks, fumbles, and the like.

We mentioned Herbert’s athleticism, and at least among this group he separates quite easily. He isn’t a threat as a designed runner, but he scrambles more than any of these guys, and in 2023 those carries were worth 12 EPA more than the other three quarterbacks combined.

Why is Tagovailoa lagging behind?

Obviously the end of the 2023 Dolphins’ season put a sour taste in people’s mouths, but there’s no doubt that Tagovailoa helmed a dangerous offense. 

It’s surprising to see a player who led the league in passing and finished fifth in passer rating sit in the middle of the pack in Total Points. At the same time, to anyone who has watched the Dolphins the last couple years it isn’t surprising that he’s brought down to earth by factors like blocking, turnover-worthy throws, and yards after catch. 

The combination of good-enough line play and quick-hitter play design meant that Miami’s line blew 20 fewer blocks in the passing game than any other team in 2023. Total Points takes that information and docks Tagovailoa to the tune of about a half a point per game for the clean pockets he was afforded. Even with that, he had the same sack rate as Jordan Love; beyond the blocking itself, Love out-earned him by almost a point per game in sack avoidance.

After being afforded those clean pockets, Tua introduced quite a bit of risk once the ball left his hands. The combination of 14 actual picks and 7 near-interceptions puts him in good company, I suppose, given that some of the best quarterbacks in the league had high interception totals last year. But he did that on throws that had much lower expected value than those guys. Patrick Mahomes threw passes over a yard shorter on average, but Total Points valued Mahomes’ specific choices of route, depth, and openness 30 points better than Tagovailoa’s in 2023.

One of the bigger changes we made to Total Points this offseason was to remove the quarterback’s ownership of yards after catch performance—at least, performance above or below the expected amount based on the route, accuracy, and openness. The quarterback still gets credit for the expected YAC when evaluating the throw, accuracy, and catch, but on a Dolphins team that finished second in average YAC before contact per reception in 2023, that’s a lot of quality production that the receivers are claiming from Tagovailoa with the new calculation.

What to expect in 2024

In short, a lot of uncertainty in the following … 

– Burrow’s health. 

– Tagovailoa’s offensive line. 

– Herbert’s skill players, San Diego’s coaching change, and a preseason injury.  

– Love’s limited exposure to the NFL and young skill group. 

These all present question marks for these well-compensated signal callers. If we assume a full season for everyone, I’d expect Burrow or Love to have the best surface stats, given that their team context feels more bankable. If healthy, I still assume Justin Herbert will deliver the best package in terms of what a quarterback can control, based on his body of work over multiple years.