Tomoyuki Sugano is one of the best Japanese pitchers of the past decade. The 35-year-old had spent his professional career with Japan’s most recognizable baseball brand the Yomiuri Giants. 

After 12 seasons in Tokyo, Sugano exercised his rights as an international free agent and signed a one-year-deal. Sugano previously tested MLB waters during the winter of 2020, when he was posted by the Yomiuri Giants, but ended up signing a player-friendly contract with Yomiuri, where his uncle, Tatsunori Hara, was manager.

The decision to move to MLB comes as somewhat of a surprise but there’s less holding Sugano in Tokyo now than there used to be, after Hara resigned after the 2023 season.

Having watched and charted every Sugano start in the last two seasons my evaluation of him is more tied to pitchability and command rather than overall stuff. You can also check out my report on Roki Sasaki from last month.

Sugano’s Recent Seasons (2022-2024)

A two-time Sawamura award winner (NPB’s Cy Young award equivalent), Sugano also won four Central League ERA titles and a 2018 pitching triple crown, He also has three Central League MVPs including a recent 2024 one. While past his prime, Sugano’s 2024 resurgence gives some hope that he can stick with the Orioles.

Biggest Strength

Sugano is a command artist who paints both edges and paints masterpieces on his canvas that is the pentagonal plate. He spots the ball with precision, or, at the very least, keeps it out of dangerous spots with his misses. While Sugano’s stuff has diminished over the years, he has a knack for cutting and sinking the ball to miss barrels.

He utilizes the breadth of his arsenal and mirrors the locations of some pitches both to righties and lefties  Sugano’s plan of attack each outing is clear to him and there’s a confidence with which he pitches. The heat maps, which you can find on NPB Pitch Profiler, illustrate the command of his secondary pitches.

Against same-handed hitters, Sugano peppers the glove side exclusively with his cutter and slider. The two pitches tunnel well, with a slight velocity difference between each and similar shapes. The pitches work in tandem on the left side of the plate.

Against opposite-handed hitters, Sugano seems more comfortable throwing his cutter and slider in the zone and will backdoor both pitches around the thighs. Sugano occasionally sprinkles traditional cutters up and in to keep hitters from leaning out over the plate. This also protects him for when he goes inside with four-seam fastballs. 

His command at times borders on exceptional, as he stays on the outer edges of the plate when he needs to and tries to keep the ball out of the middle third unless he is significantly behind in the count.

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

Mechanics

Sugano starts in a slightly open position with his feet and his body turned slightly to his right. As he steps to the side with a slower pace he pauses for a beat in his windup before raising his left leg.

There’s not a lot of momentum built up in his delivery but he counter-rotates his pelvis a tiny bit right after peak leg lift, around chest height. He drives his momentum to the plate with his back pocket facing the batter ever so slightly. Sugano opens earlier than most and doesn’t sink deep into his lower half, rather throwing from a more upright position. 

As he lands into front foot strike, his arm is up at a close to 90-degree angle and he sequences his movements well. With a firm lead leg block, his chest is out over his knee in a solid position, driving his energy down the slope of the mound. With smooth and repeatable actions and consistency in his arm swing, Sugano never looks rushed or off, timing-wise. Sugano also keeps his head incredibly quiet with minimal movement, which plays a big part into his command.

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Sugano rarely quick-pitched to throw the timing off of the hitter, something he might try more with the Orioles if he feels like timing is more valuable to MLB hitters.

via GIPHY

Pitch Usage (2023-2024):

Pitch Velocity (MPH):

Against Right-Handed Batters (RHB):

Against Left-Handed Batters (LHB):

The Arsenal (2024 usage and Average Velocity)

Fastball   34%, 92 mph   CSW% 30%   STRIKE% 68%

Sugano throws both a sinker and a four-seam fastball, the usage of which is grouped above, but he throws his sinker about 8% of the time and the four-seam 26%. His four-seam is not spectacular in shape or velocity but he pounds the zone with the pitch against righties and-as mentioned-dots the edges of the zone against lefties.

The Orioles may utilize Sugano more in a five-and-dive role, rather than the innings eater he was in NPB. With this outcome, there’s a possibility of throwing one or two ticks harder stateside. I would bet on him trying to eat innings some outings and provide value going as deep as he can into games.

Sugano’s biggest path to success is superb fastball command. When he gets hit hard, he usually leaves fastballs more middle, where he’s susceptible to the long ball. He allowed 6 home runs last season, 3 on fastballs (it was a lot harder to hit a home run in Japan due to the deadened ball there).

In contrast, he allowed 10 home runs in less than half the innings pitched in 2023. Home run suppression will be vital to his success since he doesn’t produce a lot of strikeouts.

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

Cutter 21%, 87 mph  CSW% 32%   STRIKE% 68%

Sugano’s cutter is the key pitch in his arsenal; it helps his other pitches out when it’s thrown well and spotted well. While attacking the glove side away from right-handed hitters he slices the outside edge of the zone with the pitch. 

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The pitch is a setup for his slider. He starts the tunnel with the cutter and then follows up with his slider in a similar spot that’s competitive but just a little more off the edge. This creates options for him to either go to a different pitch or ride the same rail with his fastball for a take. Sugano will then change the looks batters get throughout a game. He changes up the variety at which he throws his slider and cutter, especially to righties.

2024 Count Usage

2023 Count Usage

Sugano upped his first-pitch usage of the cutter this season. While individually the pitch performed possibly worst out of all his pitches, the upping of the usage, especially early in the count, helped his slider perform better later in the count. He used the slider as a whiff pitch and a two-strike pitch in 2024. The cutter produces a decent amount of ground balls, utilized primarily down in the zone. Its ground ball rate was 56% in 2024 and 49% in 2023.

Slider 20%, 82 mph   CSW% 34%   STRIKE% 71%

While his cutter is key against right-handed batters, Sugano’s slider is his bread and butter. While a barrage of glove-side cutters and fastballs establishes the eye level and attack zone, Sugano uses his slider to stay in that same attack zone. With a bit more sweep and lower velocity than his cutter, it stays in that outer lane to righties before sweeping and dropping more as it approaches the plate.

When Sugano rips a beautifully-located slider it’s become harder for hitters to stay disciplined. Last season his whiff rate jumped to around 25% on the pitch whereas in 2023 and even 2022 his slider whiff rate hovered around 20%.

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Sugano started using the cutter and slider in tandem, throwing both pitches around the same usage in 2021. However, his concerted effort to throw more cutters early in the count last season shows a shift in his thinking that he needs to tunnel both the cutter and slider more to protect his fastball and improve his slider’s performance.

He loves the glove-side cutter and slider tunnel though and has for the last five seasons or so. His propensity to throw his slider and even his cutter more in the zone and backdoor to left-handed hitters also creates a tunnel for his arm-side sinker.

He also honed his slider and cutter command more this season than in past years, which could explain his boost in success with both pitches.

Splitter 16%, 86 mph   CSW% 22%   STRIKE% 57%

A mainstay in Sugano’s arsenal has been his splitter, which he has always been able to pinpoint below the zone. There’s the occasional miss up with the pitch but Sugano has a feel for keeping the pitch just below the zone to try and get grounders and swings over the top of the pitch.

The bump in usage from Sugano in 2024 compared to 2023 is significant enough with a 5 percentage-point  overall usage bump in 2024 on his splitter and an 8-point bump against left-handed hitters. He threw his splitter the least of any pitch in his shorter 2023 season. However, Sugano started to lean on his splitter in putaway situations in 2024.

Sugano’s decision to throw his best pitch more in high-leverage situations was a welcomed change. Even increasing the usage of the pitch versus same-handed hitters returned good results.

Sugano’s walk rate did not spike either, in fact, it lowered from 4.8% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, and his splitter, just because of the nature of the pitch, has the lowest strike rate in his entire arsenal. Deciding to throw more cutters and sliders in the zone when behind in the count, and then attack with a splitter when he has a chance to put both righties and lefties away garnered real success for him.

The pitch doesn’t drop below the zone as violently as other splitters but with its spin and characteristics, it mimics his sinker a lot, with backspin but at lower spin rates, causing more drop to the pitch. He loves to throw the pitch when he needs a whiff or a double-play ball.

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

Curveball 9%, 77 mph   CSW% 27%   STRIKE% 63%

Sugano’s least-used pitch last season in terms of secondaries was his curve. While he dropped the usage of his curveball in 2024  it was thrown with better spin, and a tick harder velocity, which improved the overall performance of the pitch.

He did expand the usage of the pitch against same-handed hitters last season, again using the pitch as a first-pitch strike stealer but also burying it down and away from righties to keep hitters off of his cutter and slider tunnel.

There’s a real possibility that Sugano lessens his fastball usage in the majors, especially the four-seam, and leans more on his breaking balls away from right-handed hitters while dropping the occasional in-zone or backdoor curve to left-handed hitters.

It will be intriguing to track his curve next season and if it even takes another step forward as a possible putaway pitch after performing quite well in 2024. This is not only because of the wrinkle it provides in his repertoire but also because the velocity disparity keeps hitters off balance. He will need to continue to locate the pitch well and can’t just loop in breaking balls unless he protects it with his other pitches beforehand.

MLB Projection and Future

Sugano has been a mainstay at the top of Yomiuri’s rotation and it will be odd to see him don a different uniform. A command specialist with just enough stuff to get hitters out, Sugano projects as a back-end starter with the poise and savvy to succeed as a rotation piece for the Orioles.

He relies more on ground balls than strikeouts needs to mix speeds and tunnel his pitches well, showcasing his superb command and brilliant pitchability. Sugano is one of the most accomplished Japanese pitchers and should be in the conversation as a Top 10 all-time NPB pitcher. At the tail end of his career, there’s some skepticism, but an outstanding 2024 season provides hope that he has enough left in the tank to yield solid value as he moves stateside.

MLB comparison: Paul Blackburn, but with Zack Greinke-like command